Is the nation’s two-party political duopoly on the verge of extinction? Not quite. But as frustration with Washington builds across the country, records show that Americans are abandoning the two major political parties as they never have before.
They are still considered the only two viable national party structures in the United States and dominate the media coverage and results of most elections, but USA Today reports that the Democratic and Republican parties are shrinking at a rapid pace. Faced with few choices at the ballot box, American voters are increasingly holding their collective noses to vote in “D” or “R” candidates while simultaneously detaching themselves from party affiliation.
In the 28 states that register voters by party, Democratic and Republican registrations have dropped by 2.5 million since the 2008 election. Democrats have seen the most voters flee their party; 1.7 million gone since 2008.
While natural cycles like death and movement to states without party registration account for some of the losses, a significant chunk of Americans have rejected the two parties for independent affiliation. Registered independents in the same group of 28 states have jumped by more than 400,000 since ’08, the continuation of a decades-long trend in the nation’s political system.
More than 2.5 million voters have left the Democratic and Republican parties since the 2008 elections, while the number of independent voters continues to grow.
A USA TODAY analysis of state voter registration statistics shows registered Democrats declined in 25 of the 28 states that register voters by party. Republicans dipped in 21 states, while independents increased in 18 states.
The trend is acute in states that are key to next year’s presidential race. In the eight swing states that register voters by party, Democrats’ registration is down by 800,000 and Republicans’ by 350,000. Independents have gained 325,000.
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Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents. But Democrats have lost the most — 1.7 million, or 3.9%, from 2008.
Democratic registration has fared worse than Republicans in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — the eight swing states with party registration. Republican losses are biggest in Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
The decline is due to a variety of factors. People move, people die, people revolt in disgust. Many are stripped from registration rolls by states seeking to remove inactive voters.
By contrast, the number of independents has grown for years and is up more than 400,000 since 2008, or 1.7%. States with big gains: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina — and Arizona, a possible target for President Obama in 2012.
The faster pace at which the two major parties have shed voters coincides with the increase in nationwide disgust and distrust in which the nation’s electorate regards their lawmakers. From the rise of the Tea Party to the popularity of Occupy Wall Street, Americans have not been shy about condemning the agenda of Democrats and Republicans in Washington.
Nowhere is the public rage against party politics seen more clearly than in the widespread unpopularity of Congress. Gallup has been tracking public approval and disapproval of Congress for more than 30 years, and the numbers they report this month are the worst ever seen. General congressional approval is at an anemic 13 percent, and both Democrats and Republican on Capitol Hill get similarly wretched numbers.
While Congress is the most visceral target of public frustration with Washington and party politics, the looming presidential election in 2012 will provide independent voters with the chance to make a significant impact at the polls and allow third-party candidates a chance at the national spotlight.
Political organizations like the Green Party and the Libertarian Party typically face hurdles to ballot access and marginalization from the mainstream media in launching presidential campaigns. In 2012, however, the sense of national anger at Democrats and Republicans has led to brighter prospects for a third-party hopeful.
There has already been much public speculation about independent or third-party campaigns led by major names in national politics. Donald Trump, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and current Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul have all been tied to possible independent or third-party bids in 2012.
Republican establishment figures have already expressed concern about the potential impacts of a Ron Paul third-party candidacy. Paul, the enigmatic conservative Congressman from Texas and current Iowa GOP frontrunner, has already been the Libertarian Party’s presidential candidate in 1988 and has toyed with the notion of running on a third-party ticket again if he loses out on the GOP nomination.
Polling suggests a Paul bid could wreak havoc on the Republican Party’s chances in November, with the Washington Post going so far as to insist that a Ron Paul presidential run outside of the GOP could “doom” that party’s White House hopes.
While most discussion of serious third-party challenges to Democratic and Republican dominance of American politics – especially presidential politics — consists of the hypothetical, the unique set of circumstances facing the country and the collective public anger at the Washington establishment presents those seeking to break party hegemony with a golden opportunity. One group seeking to give voters a third option has already moved forward with that goal, and has had unprecedented success in doing so.
Americans Elect is a private organization dedicated to running a major third-party presidential ticket to challenge the eventual Republican nominee and President Obama in November. Though currently without a candidate, Americans Elect recently scored an impressive organizational victory by gaining ballot access in California, joining 11 other states in which the group will appear on presidential ballots.
The hope of Americans Elect is to get access in all 50 states and hold an online nominating convention in June to choose their presidential and vice-presidential nominees, bringing together Democrats and Republicans in a bipartisan movement.
Americans Elect, a privately financed group attempting to run a major third-party candidate for the White House, won a spot on California’s 2012 ballot Monday, a milestone in its quest to give voters an alternative to President Obama and his Republican challenger.
California is the 12th state to award Americans Elect a ballot line in the 2012 presidential race. The group hopes its ticket will appear on the ballot in all 50 states. To earn its place on the California ballot, Americans Elect submitted the signatures of more than 1 million registered voters.
An Americans Elect spokeswoman said the group had already won presidential ballot lines in five key electoral states — Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Colorado and Nevada — as well as six others: Utah, Mississippi, Kansas, Arkansas, Alaska and Arizona. Americans Elect plans to nominate its candidates for president and vice president through online balloting in June.
“It is clear that voters are receptive to more choices, more competition, and the reason is that the Democratic and Republican officeholders are not meeting their needs,” said Darry Sragow, a longtime California Democratic strategist who is a senior advisor to the group.
The goals of Americans Elect are noble enough, seeking to dislodge the inevitability of two-party domination within America’s political establishment. But a closer inspection of the group’s origins and the men — and money — behind the movement raises significant concern.
The individuals behind the creation and early success of Americans Elect are a veritable who’s-who of Washington insiders and corporate titans. Two veteran political strategists, Doug Schoen and Mark McKinnon, are senior advisers,. Far from a grassroots democratic operation, the group is full of “moderate” Democrats and Republicans with long ties to the existing stranglehold on American politics enjoyed by the two major parties.
The group is bitterly hostile to the “Occupy Wall Street” movement and has done nothing to court the existing grassroots organizations that have long supported the idea of a strong third-party in national politics, from Libertarians to Greens. Most of the money used to finance Americans Elect comes from a small group of wealthy donors with ties to Wall Street and major corporations. They are openly courting super-rich individuals to be their presidential nominee.
Americans Elect has already elicited responding praise for its “bipartisan” and “moderate” agenda from superstars of the mainstream media like Thomas Friedman.
The details of Americans Elect are so at odds with public sentiment and the typical makeup of a third-party campaign, one wonders about the intentions of this creation of the rich and powerful.
What Americans Elect has done is fashion a new twist to the quadrennial quest for a credible third-party contender. Instead of an outside party, it has crafted a parallel nominating process: a nonpartisan online convention. Anyone with a valid ID and an Internet hookup is eligible to become a “delegate,” and candidates can either register by completing a questionnaire or be drafted by popular support. Through a series of online ballots, the slate of contenders will be whittled down to six in April, and then to a single winner in June. In keeping with the group’s shibboleths, the nominee must tap a member of a different party as a running mate, forming a “unity ticket” that will occupy the chasm in the political center.
For a political start-up, Americans Elect has Establishment-grade cash and credentials. Its roster is dotted with veterans of Washington warfare, both Democrats and Republicans, who have grown weary of both parties’ penchant for pandering to their fringes. Schoen recently authored a column that cast Occupy Wall Street as a “radical” uprising that was “dangerously out of touch” with American values. Another adviser, Mark McKinnon, served as George W. Bush’s media strategist but declined to reprise the role in 2008 out of respect for Obama. Also on the group’s board are a battery of business executives; Dennis Blair, Obama’s former Director of National Intelligence; and Christine Todd Whitman, the moderate former Republican governor of New Jersey. A framed column by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, which predicted that the group would do to politics “what Amazon.com did to books,” hangs in the hallway of its airy 10th-floor suite, from which you can glimpse a sliver of the White House three blocks down Pennsylvania Avenue.
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Americans Elect has amassed more than 75% of the 2.9 million signatures required to grace the ballot in all 50 states and mined its connections to net $22 million of the estimated $35 million needed to finance the experiment. Though nearly 5,000 people have chipped in so far, the bulk of the group’s war chest comes from about 50 wealthy donors. In a way, Americans Elect represents an unlikely alliance between clashing socioeconomic factions, with the 1% bulldozing the barriers to ballot access so that the 99% can pick a President — perhaps someone who hails from their own ranks, for a change.
Both parties work for the same boss…the 1%.
Americans are not so stupid as to believe that Democrats are any more committed to opposing the corporate fascism that is destroying our country than Republicans. Look at the contributions for both parties. All of the $$ comes from the same places.
That people are leaving the Republicans is rational- that party makes no sense and is basically hoping for some major change in the political landscape that allows them to regain a somewhat principled foothold on reality. Like: the majority tipping to those (‘liberals’) who don’t want to turn back the clock to the mid-1960s.
For the Democratic side…well, why would anyone (especially young voters) want to join a party that is lame, deadlocked between ‘centrists’/conservatives and liberals? It seems sensible for a lot of conservatives who remained registered as Democrats but never vote for Democrats anymore to finally let that lapse or change it.
Great post on the potential for a third party breaking up the political duopoly. I invite you to read my post on the Hill’s Congress Blog, . Instead of launching an Independent Presidential bid, a viable long term third party strategy is to first target competitive House seats.